A powerful 6.1 magnitude earthquake that struck Sındırgı, Balıkesir, has reignited fears of a major seismic event in Türkiye’s most populous city, Istanbul. The tremor, which was also felt in Bursa, Çanakkale, and Istanbul, has already been followed by 1,235 aftershocks, sparking widespread concern and expert warnings.
High Alert for Istanbul
Prominent geoscientist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür issued an alarming statement following the Sındırgı quake, saying:
“The risk of a major earthquake in Istanbul is extremely high. Wherever a fault ruptures, the next break usually occurs to its west. The 1999 earthquake ruptured Kocaeli; west of that is us — Istanbul.”
According to Görür, the expected earthquake in Istanbul could reach at least magnitude 7.2, making it one of the most significant seismic threats in Türkiye.
Which Areas of Istanbul Are Most at Risk?
Görür emphasized that the European side of Istanbul would likely suffer the most damage in a potential major quake:
“The European side will witness the most intense destruction. Certain districts on the Asian side will also feel high seismic intensity — up to magnitude 8 or 9 on the intensity scale.”
He added:
“Even the most robust buildings can suffer damage in a level 9 intensity earthquake. Expecting to remain entirely unaffected is highly unrealistic.”
Coastal Areas Face Even Greater Danger
Görür also highlighted the increased risk for residents living along the European coastline:
“People enjoy the beautiful view, but in case of an earthquake, these areas will experience higher seismic acceleration and greater destruction potential.”
Why the Concern Is Rising
The North Anatolian Fault Line, which runs beneath the Sea of Marmara, poses a direct threat to Istanbul.
Seismologists have long warned of a stress accumulation in this segment of the fault, especially after the 1999 İzmit Earthquake (Mw 7.4).
Experts believe the next rupture is likely overdue, with Istanbul directly in its path.
Recap of Sındırgı Earthquake
Location: Sındırgı, Balıkesir
Magnitude: 6.1
Felt in: Istanbul, Bursa, Çanakkale
Aftershocks: 1,235 recorded
No immediate reports of large-scale damage, but widespread panic reported across the region.
What Should Istanbul Residents Do?
Review emergency plans with family and community members.
Ensure buildings meet earthquake safety codes, especially in older districts.
Prepare an emergency kit with essentials (water, flashlight, power banks, first aid, etc.).
Follow updates and recommendations from AFAD and trusted geological institutions.
A National Wake-Up Call
The Sındırgı earthquake and Görür’s stark warning serve as a serious reminder: Türkiye, and especially Istanbul, is not prepared enough for a high-magnitude earthquake. As urbanization continues along active fault zones, proactive action, urban renewal, and public education become even more critical.
