The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) is preparing to release its third inflation report of 2025 in a high-level presentation that is expected to attract the attention of investors, financial analysts, academics, and policy makers both domestically and internationally. The report, formally titled the “Inflation Report 2025-III,” will be introduced to the public by CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan during a press conference scheduled for Thursday, August 14, 2025, at 10:30 a.m. at the Istanbul Financial Center CBRT Campus.
The event will be held in person and will also be broadcast live via the Central Bank’s official website, along with the institution’s YouTube and X (formerly Twitter) accounts, ensuring broad accessibility for stakeholders and the public alike.
Why the Inflation Report Matters for Türkiye and Global Markets
Türkiye’s inflation dynamics are closely watched by markets due to the country’s strategic geopolitical location, its integration with European and Middle Eastern trade routes, and its emerging economy status. The CBRT’s quarterly inflation reports serve as key policy documents that reveal the Bank’s macroeconomic outlook, price stability strategies, and policy rate expectations for the near and medium term.
Each report is backed by extensive data modeling, scenario analysis, and forecasts based on both domestic and international developments. It serves as the main communication tool between the central bank and the public regarding monetary policy direction.
2025: A Pivotal Year for Inflation Stabilization
The upcoming 2025-III Inflation Report is especially significant given Türkiye’s recent economic trajectory. After years of battling double-digit inflation, Türkiye has entered a period where structural reforms and tighter monetary policy are beginning to take effect.
In the previous report (2025-II), the CBRT maintained its end-2026 inflation forecast at 12%, projecting a decline to 8% by the end of 2027, and aiming for long-term price stability at around 5%. These targets were seen as ambitious but achievable, especially in light of Governor Karahan’s commitment to transparency, accountability, and evidence-based policy decisions.
What to Expect from the 2025-III Report
While the full contents of the report will be disclosed during the live presentation, analysts expect several key themes to be addressed, including:
Updated inflation forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027
Macroeconomic assumptions related to global oil prices, exchange rates, and food costs
The impact of fiscal policy coordination on inflation
Data-driven evaluation of monetary tightening measures implemented in Q2 and Q3
Revisions, if any, to the monetary policy stance, including the policy rate corridor and reserve requirements
The role of exchange rate stabilization in supporting disinflation
Sectoral breakdown of price movements, especially in energy, housing, and food
Additionally, Governor Karahan is expected to answer questions from media representatives, shedding more light on the Bank’s policy response to domestic inflationary pressures, currency volatility, and external shocks such as supply chain disruptions or geopolitical risks.
Fatih Karahan: A Central Banker Focused on Credibility
Since assuming office, Governor Fatih Karahan has emphasized the importance of institutional credibility and forward guidance in monetary policy. A former academic with experience at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Karahan brings an evidence-based, internationalist perspective to Türkiye’s monetary governance.
Under his leadership, the CBRT has prioritized communication clarity and policy consistency. He has frequently stated that price stability is the central bank’s primary mandate, and that achieving it requires “decisive action, patience, and data discipline.”
Market confidence in Karahan’s leadership has grown in recent months, with many analysts crediting him for restoring policy transparency and anchoring medium-term inflation expectations.
Türkiye’s Inflation Path: Challenges and Opportunities
Türkiye’s inflation peaked at over 80% in 2022 but has since entered a moderation phase, thanks in part to tighter monetary conditions, improved fiscal discipline, and better management of exchange rate risks. However, inflation remains elevated by global standards, particularly in volatile sectors like food and transportation.
The CBRT has raised interest rates significantly over the past year and implemented macroprudential policies to curb speculative lending and strengthen the Turkish lira.
One of the key questions for the 2025-III report will be whether the disinflation path remains on track amid global uncertainties such as:
Geopolitical conflicts affecting oil and gas markets
Volatile capital flows into emerging markets
Changes in Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy
Global food price fluctuations driven by climate risks
Digital Transparency: How CBRT Communicates in 2025
The CBRT has also stepped up its efforts to communicate more effectively with both domestic and international audiences. The decision to broadcast the Inflation Report presentation live across multiple platforms reflects a modern, digitally transparent approach to central banking.
Economists, students, journalists, and market participants will be able to watch the event in real time and access key materials, such as the full report and accompanying slides, shortly after the presentation.
This aligns with the CBRT’s broader digital transformation agenda, which includes real-time data dashboards, research portals, and fintech engagement.
A Strong Institutional Commitment to Price Stability
The CBRT’s announcement reaffirmed its unwavering stance on inflation control. The statement reads:
“The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye is committed to full compliance with international sanctions regimes and will maintain strong economic pressure on inflationary channels until price stability is firmly established.”
This messaging reinforces the Bank’s earlier assertion that monetary tightening will remain in place until inflation trends show consistent and sustainable improvement.
Mid-Term Targets and Growth Compatibility
While the current focus is on curbing inflation, the CBRT has also emphasized that price stability is a prerequisite for sustainable growth. The 2025-III report is likely to touch on:
The relationship between interest rates and private sector investment
Efforts to balance disinflation with employment and productivity growth
Medium-term goals for exchange rate predictability and financial sector resilience
Governor Karahan has previously mentioned that a stable macroeconomic environment will support long-term growth, especially in export-oriented sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and technology.
Why August 14 Matters
The presentation of the 2025-III Inflation Report comes at a time when Türkiye stands at a critical crossroads: aiming to consolidate disinflation gains while reasserting its economic resilience in a rapidly changing global landscape.
With global markets watching closely, the August 14 event will serve as more than just a policy update — it will be a litmus test for Türkiye’s central bank independence, institutional credibility, and strategic vision.
