With Türkiye’s financial markets in a delicate state amid inflationary pressure and shifting global trends, economic expert Ali Ağaoğlu has shared detailed insights into the current investment climate, policy direction, and commodity forecasts. His remarks — shared during a conversation with journalist Şeref Oğuz Güldağ — touched on everything from deposit taxation and monetary policy to gold, silver, and oil price scenarios.
Ağaoğlu’s core message is clear: without bold policy adjustments — particularly in withholding tax (stopaj) on interest income — the country risks pushing citizens from saving into consumption, thereby fueling inflation further. At the same time, markets are already pricing in possible interest rate cuts, while precious metals and energy remain highly sensitive to global developments.
Interest Rates vs Inflation: The Real Return Dilemma
Ağaoğlu criticized the existing tax burden on deposit interest, pointing to a significant disconnect between net returns and headline inflation. He noted that although deposit rates hover around 43 percent, the 17.5 percent withholding tax brings the real yield down to approximately 35.5 percent.
Given Türkiye’s annual inflation of around 33.5 percent, the real return for savers is marginal — barely 2 percent — making savings less attractive and pushing individuals toward immediate consumption.
“This narrow gap makes it difficult to encourage saving. More people will spend rather than save, which fuels inflation even further,” Ağaoğlu warned. “Unless stopaj is reduced or eliminated, cutting interest rates becomes extremely risky.”
He argued that removing the tax on deposit interest would make saving more attractive even at lower nominal rates — helping to curb consumption and ultimately reducing inflation expectations among households.
KOBİ Definition Updated, Credit Expansion Needed
The conversation also turned to Türkiye’s small and medium-sized enterprises (KOBİ), which recently saw a significant update in their official classification. The turnover ceiling was increased from 500 million TL to 1 billion TL, meaning more companies are now eligible for KOBİ-specific financial instruments and credit lines.
Ağaoğlu welcomed the update but emphasized that access to financing must grow in parallel. He called for a more aggressive credit expansion policy, suggesting that the current 2.5 percent cap on credit growth should be raised to at least 5 percent to make a meaningful impact.
“It’s simple math. More businesses now qualify as KOBİs, but credit access hasn’t expanded accordingly. A radical step is needed to unlock real growth potential,” he added.
Which Asset Class Remains Most Attractive?
Despite fluctuations across all financial instruments, Ağaoğlu still considers TL-denominated deposits as the most appealing short-term investment. While the stock market is pricing in future rate cuts — especially within the banking sector — and the exchange rate remains relatively stable, deposits still offer a positive return when adjusted for inflation.
“We’re still in a world where TL time deposits provide real positive yield. Among stocks, interest rates, FX, and gold, deposits remain compelling,” he said.
Looking ahead, he expects a 250 to 300 basis-point rate cut from the Central Bank during its September 11 meeting, possibly followed by smaller cuts throughout the remainder of the year. He revised his year-end policy rate forecast down to 32.5 percent.
Two Scenarios for Gold Prices, Both Lead to $4000
Turning to commodities, Ağaoğlu offered a bullish long-term outlook for gold, with two distinct but converging scenarios that both target a $4000/oz level.
In the first, gold breaches the $3550 resistance, opening the way to $4000 within 2025. In the second, a correction pushes prices down to $3050 or even $2950, but is followed by a strong rebound that reaches the same $4000 target — albeit in the new year.
“Both scenarios point toward the same outcome. The only difference is timing. Markets have already priced in Fed rate cuts, and that’s bullish for gold,” Ağaoğlu stated.
He also sees silver tracking gold’s momentum, projecting potential upward movement toward $42.5 to $43 per ounce.
Oil Price Hinges on U.S.–Russia Deal Talks
Ağaoğlu highlighted an important geopolitical event set to influence oil markets: a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska, scheduled for the coming week. Should the two leaders reach a deal — particularly concerning Russian oil exports via India — oil prices could drop significantly.
“If the U.S. pressures India to slow its purchases of Russian oil through import tariffs, and Russia agrees to new terms, Brent could drop to $55,” he predicted.
In the absence of an agreement, he does not expect prices to sustainably exceed $70–72 per barrel, adding that current supply-demand dynamics remain tight, especially with Türkiye ranking as one of the top buyers of refined petroleum products, notably diesel.
Policy Coordination Needed for Sustainable Stabilization
Ağaoğlu concluded that Türkiye’s financial landscape demands coordinated policy actions. While structural reforms like the updated KOBİ definition are welcome, they must be accompanied by tax reform, credit expansion, and forward guidance from the Central Bank.
He warned that without a reduction in deposit taxes, lowering interest rates may inadvertently stimulate consumption instead of savings, leading to renewed inflationary pressure. A well-balanced monetary-fiscal strategy is essential for ensuring that Türkiye’s households and businesses retain confidence in financial assets.
With equity markets responding to anticipated policy changes and global commodities swinging on diplomatic developments, 2025 is shaping up to be a year where economic agility will be just as important as economic planning.
